While projecting into the economic future is a risky venture, projecting a decade ahead may seem almost foolhardy. But this attempt by highly regarded forecasters has been made with solid evidence to prognosticate the U.S. of 2027 to new heights.
A gross domestic product of $23.4 trillion (in 2017 dollars), up from almost $20 trillion by the end of 2018, doesn’t seem too difficult to attain. This allows for a growth of 1.9 percent per year, inclusive of a recession or two along the way. Such a target seems particularly attainable in light of the expanding laborsaving technologies now being introduced into the overall economy.
While the aftermath of the first new U.S. tax restructure in more than 30 years is already eliciting negative reaction, it’s not coming from the poor versus rich scheme that usually follows such major changes.
While gaining huge support from independent businesses versus the previously dominant global conglomerates, this current tax plan is sure to accelerate both the expansion and rebuilding of factory-based U.S. facilities, and the additional hiring of unskilled, as well as varied degrees of highly skilled, labor.
In fact, the unprecedented reduction of corporate taxes for U.S.-based facilities from 35 percent to 21 percent is not only benefitting the small, medium, and large independent corporations, but is attracting unprecedented incomes from large foreign companies that can no longer depend on low-priced imports to undercut “Made in U.S.A.” in a great variety of products. These imports elevated America’s gross domestic product to 68 percent of consumption.
This process alone is already greatly expanding the need for all types of workers, skilled and unskilled, along with an unprecedented rebuilding process just getting underway. Optimists are already calling for a $20 trillion gross domestic product level by 2020, with the 68 percent consumption percentage down from as much as one-half to one-third during this time period.
While a major forward jolt in the manufacturing arena is practically assured for the next two years, those paying taxes in the high tax states of New York, Illinois and California are exceedingly dissatisfied.
To make it simple, these states were always at the top end of the state taxation, which could be deducted from the federal taxes that were only filed during each taxable year.
This means that such states notably dominated by the Democrats are blaming the Republican Trump Administration for exerting punishments on those no longer able to deduct huge mortgage interest amounts— as well as other state payments from previous major reductions, softening the blow of the “taxes on the rich,” emanating from Washington.
This will most assuredly greatly increase at $10,000, the totality of deductions that U.S. taxpayers are now allowed. It’s estimated that one-third of the taxpayers involved in the “big three” states will be worse off in taxation total from what they were responsible for prior to the Trump national taxation. This, of course, is offset by those with low and medium incomes, especially in states that have not benefitted by the disproportionately high deductions for mortgage interest, etc.
Obviously, the big independent corporations, embracing the unprecedented monetary liquidity flowing into the U.S., rather than one-sided anti-U.S. export/import plans of the past will amplify attempts to reverse the state deductible interests that had reduced the much higher federal taxes of the past.
With the early signs of 2018 just getting started, there are many indications that the New Year will bring forth unexpected events and some major surprises not yet factored into the anticipated Administration’s “mid-term” election extravaganza in November 2018.
Although foreign policy will provide more than the normally expected surprise events (North Korea, Mideast confrontations, Eurocom disintegration and the Russian/Syrian/Iranian alliance, for instances), it’s more than likely that the U.S. Government Administration’s manifold difficulties will provide most of the “one-second” media headlines.
This prediction is especially valid, since President Trump’s feisty and argumentative governing style will provide unexpected mandates. Anyone expecting a recessive presidential style, absence of constant Twittering, or moderation in relationships with antagonistic GOP Senators is kidding him or her self.
Much more likely is an even tougher President, who will hold his fellow GOP party members to account, ready to “retaliate” when Trump’s will is being questioned. It is much more likely that President Trump will resort to “direct action course” mandates; possibly outstripping the record used by President Obama in his last two years of his second term.
While such “direct action” will unleash a flurry of legal challenges, expect the President’s orders to be activated before the complicated U.S. legalistic high gear elevates its judicial powers.
It’s a near certainty that “sanctuary” states, regions, and cities will be declared illegal, overriding this unprecedented, institutional attempt to give this anti-national historical format the upper hand.
Unfortunately, this unique, inflexible President will likely declare any of these legislative challenges as dangerous attempts to undermine his continued leadership. This could stir up a record outbreak of opposition, especially in cities and educational institutions ready to instigate increasingly violent confrontations, at a level not previously experienced in U.S. history.
This will lead up to the Nov. 6 mid-term election campaign that will reflect the will of the U.S. voters, hopefully, to clarify the incumbent trend of the American electorate, such as the last presidential election dictated, without resistance.