Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI) released its monthly TRENDS report, showing sales by HARDI distributors increased by 5.3% during September 2025.

The annual sales growth for the 12 months through September 2025 is an increase of 4.6%.

“Cooling season 2025 ends with sales growth of 5.3% during September,” said HARDI Macroeconomic and Residential Market Analyst Brian Loftus. “That result got an extra boost from an extra billing day. We estimate sales was about flat with the same number of billing days.”

The monthly sales survey also calculates distributor’s Days Sales Outstanding which is a measure of how quickly customers pay their bills.

“The DSO for September was near 38. That is comparable to the pace we saw one year ago," Loftus said. The Fed is cutting rates because the economy is slowing but HARDI customers are not exhibiting any deterioration."

The chart illustrates the annual sales growth rate is now at the upper edge of the recent range, but that does not mean demand is improving.

“We believe underlying demand is comparable to last year, so most of this annual growth is due to price increases being passed through," Loftus said. "Confirmation of that is the latest sales to inventory ratio is comparable to the depressed levels of 2022 and 2023 after the supply chain crumbled. Hopefully the start of heating season will provide some relief to that ratio.”

HARDI members do not receive financial compensation in exchange for their monthly sales data and can discontinue their participation without prior notice or penalty. Participation is voluntary, and the depth of market coverage varies from region to region. An independent entity collects and compiles the data that can include products not directly associated with the HVACR industry.