We are in October, the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2025, with continued uncertainty regarding the tariffs hampering activity in the PVF sector of our economy. Exacerbating the situation is the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruling, announced Aug. 30, that President Donald Trump went too far when he declared national emergencies to justify imposing sweeping import tariffs.
However, the 7-4 appeals decisions tossed out a part of that ruling, striking down the tariffs immediately, allowing time for the Trump administration to appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.
As of this writing, a date has not been set for the U.S. Supreme Court hearing.
Additionally, the Trump administration’s stance on a $50-per-barrel target price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is at odds with U.S. producers who state that the $50 target is not sustainable for oil. It needs to be in the mid-$60 range.
Analysts at Morningstar agree. U.S. producers are more exposed than before to a possible price war with OPEC+ as production is ramped up. OPEC+ ramped up production in August by 548,000 barrels/day and is planning on increasing again in the ensuing months; how much is yet to be determined.
As of writing, WTI is at $64.33/barrel and Brent is at $67.77/barrel.
Nearly 27% of oil and gas companies active in Texas and the adjacent territories plan to cut back on capital expenditures in 2026, an increase from previous quarter reports from the Dallas Federal Energy Survey.
The drop in planned spending is concentrated among large producers (producing more than 10,000 barrels/day), with 75% stating that they expect to drill fewer wells in 2026.
In contrast, 34% of the leading smaller producers stated they have scaled back their plans.
ConocoPhillips, the Houston-based producer, said it would cut up to a quarter of its workforce, or around 3,250 employees. This follows Chevron’s announcement earlier in the year to shrink its workforce by up to 20%.
Rise in illegal transshipments
With all the turmoil regarding the status of our tariff policy, the supply/demand issues facing the oil markets and the Federal Reserve’s prime rate stance, uncertainty continues to affect the PVF sector of our economy.
The pricing and availability of butt-welding carbon steel fittings and forged steel flanges remain stable; however, they are anticipated to increase and need to be closely monitored to avoid getting caught off guard.
Again, the degree of escalation has yet to be determined as the allocation of the tariffs remains unclear. Some manufacturers/suppliers have made their adjustments, while others continue to take a wait-and-see posture until the dust has settled.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) released a CTPAT Alert (https://bit.ly/42mqsK5) for members highlighting the growing risk of illegal transshipping, the practice of rerouting or relabeling goods through third countries to evade duties, tariffs or trade restrictions. While transshipping is a common and legal logistics practice, it becomes unlawful when used to disguise a product’s true country of origin.
CBP has seen a rise in transshipments, especially on Chinese-origin goods, to circumvent trade enforcement measures. Violations can lead to severe consequences, including fines, seizures of shipments, business disruption, loss of import privileges and reputational damage.
We encourage all customers to stay vigilant by carefully vetting suppliers, verifying country-of-origin markings and reporting suspicious activity.
Construction news
Electric vehicle manufacturer Rivian is preparing to resume construction on its paused $5 billion plant in Social Circle, Georgia. The plan calls for a 16-million-square-foot manufacturing plant on a 1,800-acre campus. It is to be built in two phases, each adding production capacity for 200,000 vehicles. Clayco, the original contractor, will be retained as the contractor of choice. The plant is scheduled for startup in 2028.
Natural gas accounts for $5.5 billion worth of capital for power generation-related projects that are anticipated to kick off during the fourth quarter. Per Industrial Information Resources, 70% of those projects have a medium-to-high likelihood of moving forward.
The highest valued project is Entergy Corp.’s $1.2 billion Delta Blues Advanced Power Station in Greenville, Mississippi. The station is designed as a combined cycle plant, capable of generating 754 MW from 70% natural gas and 30% from hydrogen; however, this is uncertain as of this writing. Construction is expected to begin this month, with completion anticipated as early as the fourth quarter of 2027.
The Kerrville Public Utility Board has a 122 MW gas-fired plant scheduled to start construction during this month, with a projected start-up in 2027.
Construction is expected to begin this quarter on a unit addition at the McCartney Generating Station in Springfield, Missouri. The new unit, estimated to be operational in 2027, is designed to provide 150 MW from three GE simple-cycle, aeroderivative turbines.
The Williams Cos.’s 287 MW natural gas-fired plant in Licking County, Ohio, is scheduled to start construction during the fourth quarter of 2025 with a total insurable value of $850 million. Williams’ subsidiary, Will-Power OH, will build and operate the facility.
JetZero is planning the construction of an aircraft assembly plant at the Piedmont Triad International Airport in Greensboro, North Carolina. This includes design and construction of building space, purchase and installation of cranes/hoists, parts and storage and composition fabrication equipment.
Construction is scheduled to start during the first or second quarter of 2026.
CBC Global Ammunition plans to construct an ammunition manufacturing facility at MidAmerica Industrial Park in Pryor, Oklahoma. Construction is scheduled to begin in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The project includes the construction of building space, installation of presses, boilers, heat exchangers, separation, washing, drying, finishing dust collection and packaging equipment.
Williams International is planning to construct a gas turbine engine manufacturing campus on a site at the Shoal River Ranch Gigasite in Crestview, Florida.
The three-phase project’s scope includes construction of multiple buildings totaling approximately 750,000 square feet, and purchase and installation of cranes/hoists and casting, machining, welding, assembly, painting and testing equipment.
Walbridge will provide construction services. Phase I, construction of the first 250,00-square-foot building, is anticipated to begin in the latter part of the fourth quarter of this year.
Industry labor issues
The U.S. construction and supply chain sectors are facing a persistent shortage of skilled labor, which is impairing all aspects of the industry.
The most recent annual workforce survey from the Associated Builders and Contractors and the National Center for Construction Education and Research showed labor shortages impacting 45% of 1,400 reporting contractors.
To address this issue, the industry is promoting education opportunities in the trades versus certain higher education degrees.
The PVF Roundtable (PVFRT) recognizes the need and passionately promotes the funding of trade schools and education programs at community colleges to address the shrinking skilled labor pool for the supply chain, construction and fabrication sectors of our industry.
The PVFRT added a new community college, the College of Mainland, to its scholarship portfolio.
The funding of these programs are provided through the PVFRT Charitable Foundation. The primary funding for the foundation is derived from the funds generated from the PVFRT annual golf tournament and the annual TroutBlast.
The Weldbend Corp., Ferguson Industrial and MRC Global are key sponsors of these events.
Networking at the PVF Roundtable
The next networking meeting of the PVF Roundtable, Casino Night and Christmas Celebration will be held Dec. 9, 2025, opening at 4:30 p.m. Please bring a gift for or donate to Toy for Kids.
The meeting will be held at Houston’s Bayou City Event Center, 281-501-6720. This venue will provide additional space and convenience to exchange information and meet new colleagues.
The PVF Roundtable continues to serve as a vital hub for industry networking, education and advocacy. Recent and upcoming events reflect the sector’s commitment to collaboration and innovation.
Networking meetings are now, more than ever, essential for you, your associates and clients to share information, discuss pertinent issues, meet new contacts, develop new long-lasting friendships and pursue new opportunities in the industry.
As a member of the board of directors, and I speak for all members, we thank you for participating in these events and urge PVF industry leaders to join us in our efforts to facilitate our industry through education and information sharing.
