Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI) released its monthly TRENDS report, showing sales by HARDI distributors declined by 5.9% during January 2026.

The annual sales growth for the 12 months through January 2026 is an increase of 2.3%.

“A sales decline of more than 5% is a disappointing way to start the year, but this year has one less billing day than January of 2025,” said Brian Loftus, macroeconomic and residential market analyst at HARDI. “We estimate the sales decline would have been closer to 1.4% with the same number of billing days.”

The monthly sales survey also calculates distributor’s Days Sales Outstanding which is a measure of how quickly customers pay their bills.

“The DSO for January was 39.4 days versus the 43 day area for January 2022, 2023 and 2024,” Loftus said. “The recent DSO trends are not raising any red flags, which is a relief after the Fed has cut rates six times during the past eighteen months.”

“The early months of the year are the sleepy time for our industry where demand has been treading water,” Loftus continued. “There have been some early signs that the rate cuts are helping to wake our economy.   Hopefully those economic green shoots keep growing, like seeing leaves on trees during the next couple of months.

HARDI members do not receive financial compensation in exchange for their monthly sales data and can discontinue their participation without prior notice or penalty. Participation is voluntary, and the depth of market coverage varies from region to region. An independent entity collects and compiles the data that can include products not directly associated with the HVACR industry.