As we come to the end of 2025’s second quarter, considering the impact of recent actions from the U.S. government on the PVF market, the following observations need to be taken into perspective.

First, it is important to distinguish between statements, press releases and tweets versus enacted policy. Second, when policies are enacted, it is essential to consider the effects. 

As of this writing, it appears that we are still in the early stages of enacting actual policy, with many countries wanting to enter trade negotiations.

The tariffs announced by the Trump administration were highly aggressive compared to what our market anticipated; their depth and scope took the industry by surprise. Tariffs were unilaterally applied to all countries and goods. However, the tariff scenario remains highly uncertain, as seen in the 90-day pause.

In the May 2, 2025, Federal Register, the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) issued an interim final rule establishing a new steel and aluminum inclusions process under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. For a 2-week period at the beginning of January, May and September every year, BIS will accept requests to add new items to the list of derivatives. The initial process for accepting requests began May 1.

After each 2-week submission window, BIS will post nonconfidential versions of what is considered a valid request on www.regulation.gov for 14 days to receive public comments. Within 60 days of receiving the requests, BIS will post final decisions on the website and publish a Federal Register notice to add new derivatives to the list.

Pricing and the availability of carbon steel butt-welding fittings and forged steel flanges need to be monitored regularly, as prices are expected to increase. The degree of escalation has not been determined as the allocation of the tariffs still remains unclear.

It is worth noting that Northern European major ports — including Antwerp, Rotterdam, Hamburg and London Gateway — are facing severe congestion due to full container yards, labor shortages, and changes in carrier alliances. These issues, compounded by strikes, low water levels on the Rhine and disruptions to rail transport, are causing significant delays for vessels and cargo handling. This situation is ongoing and expected to recur, with waiting time for vessels and barges often extended for several days.

Oil market: Trade tensions and OPEC+ production

Oil prices have seen a steep decline since last month’s column due to Saudi Arabia indicating a rise in production and data showing a contraction in the U.S. economy.

“The oil market remains concerned about oil demand growth over the coming months due to trade tensions as well as a faster unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts,” per UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

Saudi Arabia signals it can live with lower oil prices. The Saudi government has been angered by Kazakhstan and Iraq producing above OPEC+ targets. After urging members to adhere to those targets and to compensate for oversupply in recent months, a frustrated Riyahd is changing course.

Saudi Arabia pushed for a larger-than-planned output hike in May, a decision that helped send oil prices below $60 a barrel to a four-year low.

As of this writing, we find WTI at $58.43/barrel and Bent at $61.32/barrel.

Positive PVF market news

White Water, MPLX and Enbridge, through the WPC joint venture, have partnered with a Targa Resources Corp. affiliate to proceed with building the Traverse Pipeline. The final investment decision was taken to proceed with the bi-directional pipeline designed to transport up to 1.75 billion cubic feet/day of natural gas through approximately 160 miles of 36-inch OD pipeline along the Gulf Coast between Agua Dulce in South Texas and the Katy area outside of  Houston.

Steel Dynamics confirmed in its first quarter earnings report the company’s 2025 capital expenditure (capex) plan of between $800 million to $1 billion. The company has, in the past, concentrated on the steel industry; now it’s focusing on building out its aluminum business. “A significant number of our flat-rolled steel customers are also consumers and processors of aluminum flat-rolled products,” the steel producer notes.

The company continues with the successful commissioning of an aluminum project, a $1.9 billion flat-rolled aluminum mill in Columbus, Mississippi. Steel Dynamics is also exploring another aluminum recycling plant in Gila Bend, Arizona, that would serve the Columbus mill. Construction could start in July.

Nucor Corp. is planning a $3 billion capex for 2025. Approximately half would go toward the ongoing construction of the company’s $3.1 billion sheet mill in Apple Grove, West Virginia. 

Another project making considerable headway is the addition of coating capability at its new galvanizing line in Berkeley, South Carolina.

Nucor CEO Leon Topalian indicated tariffs on equipment imports would not affect the company’s projects.

Construction outlook clouded

As of this writing, a report released by the U.S. Census Bureau notes that total construction spending fell 0.5% in March. Residential construction spending fell 0.4% from February’s rate and nonresidential spending declined 0.5%.

Ken Simonson, chief economist at the Associated General Contractors of America (AGC), states: “Construction spending retreated in March, as media reports and corporate announcements suggest owners are hesitant to start new projects in light of uncertainty over tariffs, government funding and other policy upheaval. Spending has slowed over the past year and, as current projects wind down, there may be several months of declining construction activity.”

Available job openings in the construction sector showed month-to-month and year-to-year declines. Economists point to caution from investors and owners taking a wait-and-see approach for the near term, as tariff rates remain unresolved and caution over the economic outlook persists.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently released the Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey; the 248,000 construction job openings reported were down 90,000 from 2024. The number of construction job openings reported by the BLS is in contrast with the more than 400,000 reported by the AGC in its May 2 news release (https://bit.ly/3GW6ZrM).

Even with a short-term decline, the shortage of skill labor persists and employers continue to have difficulty in securing the required skilled labor.

Fabricators, contractors, energy companies, pipeline operators and mechanical contractors realize the need and have initiated training programs in an attempt to meet that need.

The PVF Roundtable acknowledges that the demand for skilled workers is not being met, despite industry training programs, and passionately advocates for the funding of trade schools and education programs specifically designed for the PVF industry.

The group is actively engaged in supporting trade schools and student recruitment for the industry through the PVF Roundtable Charitable Foundation, with scholarships exceeding the $2 million mark in 2024.

The PVF Roundtable Golf Tournament and TroutBlast are the major 2025 fundraising events for the foundation. Key sponsors of these events are Weldbend Corp., Ferguson Industrial and MRC Global.

PVF Roundtable networking

The next PVF Roundtable networking meeting is scheduled for Aug. 6, 2025, with Chad Prather, the 2022 Republican candidate for Texas governor, as the guest speaker. Doors open at 4:30 p.m. CDT. 

The meeting will be held at Houston’s Bayou City Event Center, 281-501-6720. The venue will provide additional space and convenience to exchange information and meet new colleagues. It is a great opportunity to network with manufacturers, suppliers and end-users.

Networking meetings are now, more than ever, essential for you, your associates and clients to discuss the issues, share information, discuss pertinent issues, meet new contacts, develop new long-lasting friendships and pursue new opportunities in the industry.

As a member of the board of directors, and I speak for all members, we thank you for participating in these events and urge PVF industry leaders to join us in our efforts to advance the industry through education and information sharing.