July marks the beginning of the second half of 2025 with uncertainty in the air. As of this writing, oil pricing is $64.65/barrel for WTI and $66.59/barrel for Brent. HSBC Holdings expects the world’s largest group of oil producers, OPEC+, to accelerate supply hikes in August and September, which is expected to raise downside risks for the bank’s $65/barrel Brent forecast from the fourth quarter of 2025: “Our new scenario assumes regular hikes from October to December and leaves 2.2 million barrels/day (bpd) of voluntary cuts fully unwound by the end of 2025.”

OPEC+ stuck to its plan in June with another significant increase of more than 411,000 bpd, as it looks to gain back market share and punish overproducers.

After years of curbing production by more than 5 million bpd (approximately 5% of global demand), eight OPEC+ countries made a modest output increase in April before tripling it for May, June and now July.

Tariff uncertainty

President Donald Trump increased nearly all of his tariffs on steel and aluminum imports by 50% in June. How this affects critical raw material pricing for industries vital to the U.S. economy (energy, homeland security and our military) has not been determined as of this writing.

Steel and aluminum from the United Kingdom are an exception. British imports are still subject to a 25% levy, as per a proclamation issued by President Trump, in reference to a recent trade agreement reached between the two countries.

A recent poll conducted by research firm Endeavor Business Intelligence surveyed nearly 200 leaders from across the country, with the manufacturing, automotive, and construction sectors accounting for around two-thirds of the respondents. 

The uncertainty stemming from the tariffs and other trade disputes has led nearly four out of 10 leadership teams to avoid taking major strategic actions and take a wait-and-see position.

Substantial shifts in restoring supply chains, or investing in new capacity, have remained rare at this early stage.

More than one-third of the respondents said they have increased prices to pass along cost increases; however, that figure was significantly lower than EBI expectations.

Port congestions at major northern European container terminals such as Antwerp, Belgium; Rotterdam, Netherlands; and Hamburg, Germany, are expected to continue through July. Recent strikes, low Rhine River water levels and terminal yard overcrowding are causing delays of several days up to two weeks. Carriers are responding with rerouting, congestion surcharges and limits on empty container returns.

A temporary tariff rollback with China has contributed to a surge in container bookings from China to the United States and is straining global ports from China. Freight rates are increasing as we head into the peak season and as carriers bring back service to the transpacific route.

Despite the tariff pauses, the 30% tariff on China is still in place and 50% on the European Union means uncertainty about what will happen through this month and August.

Pricing and the availability of carbon steel butt-welding fittings and forged steel flanges need to be monitored regularly as prices, as of this writing, are expected to increase. The degree of escalation has not been determined, as the allocation of the tariffs still remains unclear. Some manufacturers/suppliers may have made adjustments prior to this column being published.

Good news for the PVF sector

At the recent MCAA Manufacturers and Supplier Council Meeting held in Scottsdale, Arizona, the outlook for the construction sector remains strong for the data center market and essential services, including hospitals and research facilities. Nonessential construction has taken a wait-and-see posture and seen postponed, canceled or delayed construction starts.

With the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s permission to develop its latest liquified natural gas export terminal in Louisiana, Venture Global LNG is immediately starting project construction.

The facility, named Calcasieu Pass 2 (CP2) will be built on 1,150 acres near Venture Global’s existing Calcasieu Pass LNG terminal in Cameron Parish, Louisiana.

CP2 will have the capacity of 20 million metric tons/year, with a maximum capacity of 28 million metric tons if fully built out.

The owner secured $3 billion in bank loans that will be put toward CP2 and has awarded Worley as its engineering, procurement and construction contractor for the project. Total investment value is estimated to be $28 billion if fully built out.

Pennsylvania Transformer Technology is planning to construct a power transformer manufacturing plant on a 78-acre site in Raeford, North Carolina. The project includes the construction of two buildings totaling 300,000 square feet; installation of fabrication, rolling, forming, machining, welding, coating, finishing and assembly equipment; and the procurement of supporting equipment and systems. Construction is expected to begin in the first quarter of 2026.

Kinder Morgan is planning on a multibillion dollar expansion of its existing natural gas pipeline network in the southeastern United States.

The proposal that is currently under review consists of 14 new 24-inch diameter pipeline segments totaling 290 miles. The lines will stretch across Georgia, South Carolina and Alabama. The project includes upgrading 13 compressor stations and the installation of four new metering facilities to manage and meter gas flow. 

Under the current administration, the project approval may be fast-tracked, allowing construction to begin as early as possible to be in service by 2028.

Supply chain labor shortage

The U.S. supply chain industry is dealing with a persistent labor shortage that threatens to destabilize all aspects of the business sector. 

As companies struggle to maintain adequate staffing levels, the effects are becoming more visible across the industry. A smaller labor pool means increased costs as supply chains must raise wages and offer additional incentives to attract and retain workers.

Slower immigration processing times, mass deportation and visa backlog have significantly reduced the number of foreign workers available for an industry that has relied on a reliable foreign labor pool.

Supply chain companies have several ways to attract and retain a stable workforce: better compensation, bonuses for achieving performance goals and flexible work schedules.

The best way to replace skilled workers is for employers to invest in training programs, certifications and internal promotion pathways.

The PVF Roundtable recognizes the need and passionately promotes the funding of trade schools and education programs to address the shrinking skilled labor pool for the supply chain, construction and fabrication sectors of our industry.

The funding of these programs are provided through the PVF Roundtable Charitable Foundation. The primary funding for the foundation is derived from the funds generated from its annual golf tournament and the annual TroutBlast.

The Weldbend Corp., Ferguson Industrial and MRC Global are key sponsors of these events.

Networking at the PVF Roundtable

The next networking meeting of the PVF Roundtable is scheduled for August 6, 2025, with Chad Prather, 2022 Republican Texas gubernatorial candidate, as our guest speaker, with doors opening at 4:15 p.m. CDT. 

The meeting will be held at Houston’s Bayou City Event Center. This venue will provide additional space and convenience to exchange information and meet new colleagues. It is a great opportunity to network with manufacturers, suppliers and end-users.

Networking meetings are now, more than ever, essential for you, your associates and clients to discuss the issues, share information, meet new contacts, develop new long-lasting friendships and pursue new opportunities in the industry.

As a member of the board of directors, and I speak for all members, we thank you for your participation in these events and urge PVF industry leaders to join us in our efforts to facilitate our industry through education and information sharing.