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When society looks back on the 2020s decades from now, artificial intelligence (AI) will be one of the most impactful, if not the most impactful, technological advancements to capture the zeitgeist. Despite AI seemingly permeating all facets of life, its long-term implications remain uncertain. Will it take over the world? Will it destroy jobs, create new ones or a little bit of both? Will it fizzle out after proving to be a bubble?
While AI has many people concerned, one thing remains certain: global warming continues to be challenging. NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies reports that the summer of 2024 was the hottest on record (https://go.nasa.gov/3YX42Nh).
Climate disasters also proliferated throughout the year, from flooding in the Upper Midwest (U.S. Geological Survey, https://on.doi.gov/3UXz9H2) to wildfires burning more than 8 million acres nationwide (www.nifc.gov/fire-information/nfn) to Hurricane Helene (https://bit.ly/40UpdSL) and Hurricane Milton.
Much like climate change, which is caused by human activity, society has been busy poisoning itself for decades via the production and use of polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). Dubbed “forever chemicals,” PFAS can be found virtually everywhere within the environment, from the air we breathe to the food we eat and the water we drink (https://bit.ly/48Z9y6z). The potential health effects include developmental defects, cancers and immunocompromising diseases.
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) took major steps in April 2024 to curb the production of PFAS with the final National Primary Drinking Water Regulation (https://bit.ly/3UXHmv3). It also finalized a rule designating two widely used PFAS as hazardous substances under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act, also known as Superfund (https://bit.ly/4eD9WZx).
These trends related to AI, climate change and PFAS may seem worlds apart, but they all have major implications for the plumbing industry, one of the stewards of our water supply and sanitation, core facets that keep our communities functioning day to day.
The implications of AI’s rise
Those of us who have been in the building industry for a long time may recall when projects were drafted by hand. Then came the computer, and the rest is history. It’s nearly impossible to find projects that aren’t designed using software today. The rise of AI feels like the beginning of another shift of this magnitude.
Historically, engineering and construction have relied on well-established rules of thumb, safety factors and experience-based practices to ensure reliable, functional designs. However, recent advancements in AI and computational technology are reshaping these methods, introducing a new era where calculations can be faster and far more precise.
In plumbing design, this computational precision can potentially overhaul traditional practices, allowing for meticulous modeling of flow rates, pipe sizing and system efficiency with an accuracy once deemed impractical. By pushing past generalized assumptions, AI-powered calculations enable engineers to design plumbing systems with unparalleled specificity, increasing safety, performance and reliability.
The transition from “good enough” design to computational optimization opens substantial possibilities for resource conservation. For example, AI’s ability to simulate complex interactions within systems allows engineers to refine designs down to individual components, minimizing waste in material and energy. This optimization directly impacts resource consumption — a major concern in today’s environmentally conscious world.
When plumbing system designs are finely tuned through AI, they can operate with increased efficiency and pave the way toward “green” engineering practices. Enhanced efficiency in plumbing infrastructure contributes to energy savings, reduces greenhouse gas emissions associated with water heating and minimizes resource waste, bringing us closer to the goal of regenerative design and construction.
Optimization through AI also complements the shift toward a circular economy, an increasingly important concept in sustainable design. Plumbing systems optimized for manufacturing, assembly and eventual disassembly allow components to be reused, refurbished or recycled at the end of their life cycle, rather than contributing to waste.
In this context, AI enables a new mindset for plumbing design that values longevity, adaptability and minimal environmental impact. This regenerative approach is aligned with the broader goal of reducing the environmental footprint of the construction industry, moving from merely sustainable solutions to those that actively restore and enhance ecosystems.
The adoption of AI-enabled design in plumbing is poised to influence every phase of the industry, from drafting to installation and, ultimately, to the longevity and adaptability of the systems we build. As the industry embraces these changes, the potential to design with a long-term, circular mindset becomes increasingly attainable, setting the stage for a truly sustainable future in plumbing and construction.
The implications of climate change
According to the United Nations, the building and construction industry accounts for 37% of greenhouse gas emissions worldwide; the plumbing sector isn’t devoid of responsibility (https://bit.ly/3YXXhut). Thankfully, AI isn’t the only technology gaining traction that could help significantly lessen plumbing’s carbon footprint.
Innovative solutions such as heat pump water heaters using carbon dioxide (CO2) refrigerants are gaining attention. Unlike traditional water heaters that rely on fossil fuels or standard electric resistance, CO2-based heat pump water heaters operate with high efficiency and use a natural refrigerant with a lower environmental impact. This technology offers a dual benefit: it provides an effective heating solution while contributing far less to greenhouse gas emissions.
By adopting these systems, the plumbing industry can play a significant role in reducing energy consumption and emissions tied to water heating, a major factor in overall building energy use.
In addition to advanced water heaters, the concept of using them as thermal batteries is also transforming the energy landscape. By leveraging thermal storage, water heaters can manage peak energy loads, balancing demand on the power grid throughout the day. This approach reduces strain on electrical infrastructure and maximizes energy efficiency, especially when paired with renewable sources such as solar or wind.
When these systems are configured to heat water during periods of lower demand or excess renewable energy production, they can mitigate the need for fossil fuel-based peaking plants, directly reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This form of energy load management positions plumbing as a key player in achieving energy resiliency and integrating renewable energy in a meaningful way.
Tools that can analyze the energy-water nexus further support sustainable water management in plumbing. By generating regional water profiles, these tools enable the industry to assess water demand, local availability and associated greenhouse gas emissions, leading to data-driven decisions that optimize water use and reduce waste.
For instance, understanding the carbon impact of transporting water in arid regions versus water-abundant areas can inform strategies to source and manage water more sustainably, creating customized, region-specific solutions.
On-site water treatment and district-level systems are also reshaping plumbing’s role in carbon reduction. Treating and reusing water closer to where it’s needed reduces the energy-intensive processes involved in centralized water treatment and long-distance water delivery. This localized approach not only decreases emissions but also enhances system resilience, ensuring water availability during power outages or natural disasters.
As climate-related disruptions become more frequent, decentralized water treatment in plumbing design underscores the industry’s contribution to environmental and operational sustainability, paving the way for resilient communities.
The implications of PFAS
Building resilient communities also calls for reducing harm, and PFAS pose a major challenge from a plumbing perspective and otherwise, given their universality. In fact, the U.S. Geological Survey estimates that PFAS are present in at least 45% of America’s tap water (https://on.doi.gov/3ARN62C). Not only are PFAS prevalent in public and private drinking water systems but their concentrations are measured in parts per trillion, a very small amount that is difficult to test.
However, drinking water can be filtered to remove PFAS, and three technologies are currently available for this application:
1. Activated carbon. Point-of-use filters can be installed at drinking fountains and faucets, providing water for cooking. PFAS molecules are large and activated carbon is a viable removal method. The filter media needs to be configured for PFAS removal.
2. Reverse osmosis (RO). Point-of-use RO systems work well for PFAS removal.
3. Ion exchange. This technology is effective for removing several PFAS compounds. The beads in the softening bed must be configured for the specific PFAS compound or compounds to be removed. This technology is best suited for industrial applications.
Disposing filter cartridges and ion exchange beads may be an issue, depending on the concentration of PFAS as the filtered PFAS could go right back into the environment. Used drinking water filters contain small concentrations of PFAS sealed in the filter shell and should be OK to send to the landfill.
RO concentrate from drinking water systems will contain small amounts of PFAS and discharge to the sanitary system right back into the environment. Ion exchange beads will contain higher PFAS concentrations than the previous removal methods. One way to deal with these beads is to incinerate them to break down the fluorine organic molecule bond.
The EPA provides records of PFAS testing results from public water systems nationwide. They may help identify whether a building project may be affected so mitigation measures can be made during design and construction (echo.epa.gov/trends/pfas-tools). Independent testing should be conducted if more information is needed to make proper recommendations on dealing with PFAS for a specific project.
AI, climate change and PFAS’ transformative impacts on engineering practices in the plumbing industry signal a broader shift that extends beyond efficiency. By driving precise, resource-conscious and regenerative design, they are not only refining how we approach plumbing systems but also playing a key role in reshaping the entire ethos of the construction industry.
Sean Turner, PE, Brian Alessi and Warren Rosenbrook, PE, CPD, are design and construction experts at Henderson Engineers, a national building systems design firm. Turner serves as innovation and research director, Alessi as sustainability director and Rosenbrook as plumbing technical director.